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Five For The Money (NFL Week 1)

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My five picks for the week. Odds are from Betus.com as of 9/4/2013

1) Pats (-9) over Bills

I actually like Manuel, but his injury will have slowed him down. Does anyone really think the Bills wont lose by at least 9?

2) Steelers (-7) over Titans

Pitt had a great defense as always last year. They will be doubly motivated this year after missing the playoffs last year. As long as Chris Johnson doesn’t have a massive game, they will win by two scores.

3) Chiefs (-3.5) over Jaguars

Alex Smith is worth much more than 3.5 points when compared to Gabbert. Besides that fact, the Chiefs have much more overall talent.

4) Tampa Bay (-3.5) over Jets

Schiano quietly has a very, very strong team. Their only question mark is at QB, and needless to say, they have the Jets beat in that department.

5) Rams (-4.5) over Cardinals

Again, the Rams are another quiet but talented team. If they were in the AFC, they would be a top-5 team. Bradford isn’t great, but he doesn’t have to be with their defense.

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Five For The Money (NFL Season Wins)

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All odds taken from Betus.com as of 9/4/2013.

1) Patriots over 11 wins

It almost as if Vegas hasn’t seen them play the last 12 years. They went 11-5 with Matt Cassel. Let that sink in for a second. They play 2 games against Geno Smith, EJ Manuel, and Ryan Tannehill. I just don’t see them going worse than 12-4, and I don’t even see them only having that number of wins. Brady and Belichick thrive with low expectations and turmoil. This is closer to a 16-0 team than an 11-5 one. It is laughable that ESPN the Magazine is predicting them to go 9-7.

2) Dolphins under 8 wins

I think Tannehill can be a solid QB in this league, but I don’t think he’s going to be anything above average this year. I wasn’t a big fan of the Wallace signing as I thought they had bigger areas to address. I am not sold on their O-line. This looks like a 6 win team.

3) Raiders under 5.5 wins

This team’s defense will be amusing to watch, as it is probably the least talented one in the NFL in years. Maybe Pryor can win a couple games on his athleticism alone a la Young or Tebow, but I just can’t see them topping 5 wins in a much improved AFC West.

4) Chiefs over 7.5 wins

KC will definitely be the most improved team in the league. The coaching and QB upgrade is almost unheard of, and the players surrounding Smith are solid. There’s a reason there were so many Pro Bowlers on this team. If Reid can avoid getting pass-happy, this is a Wild Card team. They’ll at least get to 8 wins even if Reid wants Smith slinging it 40 times a game.

5) Bears under 8.5 wins

Don’t like the schedule and don’t like the coach. I think they lost their identity on D without Urlacher and there just isn’t close to enough firepower on O to lead them to a winning record. 

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Five For The Money (NCAA Wins)

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Here are the five best bets to exceed or fall below their projected regular season win totals this year. As always, all odds are found at Betus.

1) Notre Dame over 8.5 wins

This is a no-brainer to me. Tommy Rees led ND to a 8-4 regular season two years ago when he was a sophomore. ND has greatly improved since then (they are 20-4 in their last 24 games), as their defense and offensive line will both be Top 5 in the country. If Rees is just slightly improved over two years ago (and all indications from camp are that he is greatly improved), 9 or 10 wins should be expected. However, I would be surprised with anything less than 10 wins this year for the Irish

Prediction: 11-1

2) Boise State over 10 wins

Simply put, Boise is scary consistent. Even last year with a depleted roster they managed 10 wins and both losses were 1-score games. The only games that look like potential losses on the schedule are Washington and Fresno State. I don’t see them losing both those games.

Prediction 11-1

3) Arizona State under 7.5 wins

The Devils have some good talent, but the schedule is just too tough. ND and Wisconsin out of schedule plus the PAC-12 is stacked this year. I would be surprised if they finished with more than 6 wins this year.

Prediction: 5-7

4) Florida State over 10 wins

FSU is my pick to play Bama in the championship this year. I think they finally breakthrough in the weak ACC. Winston is the real deal at QB and he will lead them to a 12-0 regular season.

Prediction: 12-0

5) Michigan State over 8.5 wins

MSU was cursed by bad luck last year, and they could have won all of their games outside of the ND loss. I expect them to get some good bounces this year, and to ride a great D to 9 or 10 wins.

Prediction: 9-3

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Five For The Money (NCAA Week 1)

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Here are the five NCAA point spreads that caught my eye this week. As always, I am using odds found on Betus.

1) Alabama (-19.5) over Virginia Tech

This is a monster spread, but Alabama has been nearly unbeatable when Saban has weeks to prep for an opponent. It shouldn’t be any different this week. Virginia Tech just does not have the talent to hang with Bama this year, and the Hokies will be playing too many true freshmen to compete with the Tide.

Prediction: Alabama 41, Virginia Tech 13

2) Oklahoma State (-13) over Mississippi State

Mullen made some great strides his first couple years at MSU, but his program seems to be stagnant right now. They weren’t impressive to end the year last year, and I don’t think they’ll be able to slow down the always high-flying Pokes.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 38, Mississippi State 20

3) Arkansas (-10.5) over UL-Lafayette

Arkansas had much more talent than their record showed last year. Bielema will get the Razorbacks back to above .500 this year, and he will look to get off to a hot start. Hudspeth is a very good coach (he was remarkable at North Alabama), but ULL just doesn’t have the talent here. They’ll keep it close early, but I expect Arkansas to pull away.

Prediction: Arkansas 37, ULL 23

4) Georgia (-2) over Clemson

I think these teams have equal talent, but I just think Richt is a better coach than Swinney. That’s got to be worth at least 2 points right? This game could really go either way, it will all come down to the Georgia secondary in my opinion. I think they respond and the Dawgs get a huge opening win.

Prediction: Georgia 35 Clemson 31

5) Florida State (-10) over Pittsburgh

Put simply, the talent difference between these two teams is huge. Chryst is a solid coach at Pitt, but they were not impressive last year. FSU was close to going undefeated in the regular season, and should have been 11-0 going into the finale against Florida. FSU is my pick to reach the championship and play Bama, and I think they begin an undefeated season with a solid win here.

Prediction: FSU 33 Pitt 16

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Introduction to Kelley Football

This site will be updated daily throughout the football season to track my progress with various college football and professional football contests and leagues. Progress will be tracked to keep track of eventual success and money/prizes earned through these contests and leagues.

In addition, there will be predictions given by myself prior to the games, and games and players will be analyzed as well. A post detailing the contests and leagues that I am in will be coming soon, along with cash submitted and potential winnings.

RK

@Kelley_Football